Theory 21/Exploration vs Exploitation/Drug discovery
Breadth Costs Depth
The claim
Drug discovery portfolios trade breadth of targets against depth of validation, so programmes screening widely validate less per target.
01Mechanism
Screening capacity is fixed; each additional target reduces the effort available to de-risk any one.
02Prediction
Attrition should rise with portfolio breadth.
03Refutation
Attrition independent of breadth would remove the trade-off.