Theory 16/Exploration vs Exploitation/Antibiotic policy
Cycling Is a Gamble
The claim
Antibiotic cycling trades short-term efficacy against long-term resistance, so cycling can outperform mixing in the short run while selecting faster overall.
01Mechanism
Cycling exploits the current drug fully and exposes the population to strong selection; mixing explores more options and dilutes selection.
02Prediction
Cycling should win short-term and lose long-term.
03Refutation
Cycling dominating on both horizons would remove the trade-off.