Theory 28/Sensitivity vs Specificity/Biosecurity
Screening Trades Flow for Safety
The claim
Biosecurity screening trades the fraction of traffic inspected against the false-positive rate, so near-complete inspection is incompatible with fast clearance.
01Mechanism
Inspection capacity is finite; raising coverage lowers the evidence threshold per item, which raises false positives and delays.
02Prediction
Clearance time should rise with coverage.
03Refutation
Clearance independent of coverage would remove the trade-off.