Theory 43/Millennia/Demography
Growth Is a Birth-Death Interval
The claim
Long-run population growth rate is set by the ratio of birth interval to death interval rather than by either alone, so a society with late births and long lives can grow or shrink depending on the ratio.
01Mechanism
Growth depends on the difference between the rates, which is set by the two intervals; the ratio determines the sign and magnitude.
02Prediction
Growth should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Growth tracking birth rate would remove mortality.