Theory 26/Seasons to Years/Phenology
Mismatch Is a Rate Difference
The claim
Phenological mismatch between species is set by the ratio of their cue response rates to the rate of climate change, so species with similar cues stay matched even as both shift.
01Mechanism
Mismatch accumulates when cues respond at different speeds; the ratio of response rates, not the absolute timing, determines separation.
02Prediction
Mismatch should track the rate ratio.
03Refutation
Mismatch tracking absolute timing would remove the rate comparison.