Theory 30/Seasons to Years/Lake physics
Turnover Is Mixing Against Cooling
The claim
The timing of lake turnover is set by the ratio of wind event frequency to cooling rate, so a windy autumn mixes a lake before it would turn over by cooling alone.
01Mechanism
Mixing requires both a destabilising density gradient and energy to overcome it; the ratio determines which arrives first.
02Prediction
Turnover timing should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Timing tracking temperature would remove wind.