Theory 06/Earthquake Engineering
Aftershocks Test Repair Capacity
The claim
Damage from an aftershock sequence is set by the ratio of residual capacity to aftershock demand, so buildings that survive the mainshock can fail in the aftershock if their capacity was consumed.
01Mechanism
Each event consumes capacity through accumulated damage; the remaining capacity relative to the next demand determines survival.
02Predictions
- P1Failure should track the residual ratio.
- P2Mainshock damage should predict aftershock losses.
03Refutation
Failure tracking aftershock magnitude alone would remove the residual term.