Theory 48/Precision & Information/Forecasting
Confidence Is Ensemble Spread
The claim
Forecast confidence should be set by the ratio of ensemble spread to the decision threshold, not by the deterministic forecast alone.
01Mechanism
Spread estimates the distribution of outcomes; what matters is how much of that distribution crosses the threshold that changes a decision.
02Prediction
Decision value should track the ratio.
03Refutation
Decision value tracking the deterministic forecast would remove the spread.