Theory 66/Networks & Connectivity/Infectious disease
Outbreak Size Follows Clustering
The claim
Final outbreak size is set by the ratio of clustering to mean degree, so a highly clustered network can produce smaller outbreaks at the same R.
01Mechanism
Clustering traps transmission within neighbourhoods that burn out together, reducing the chance of reaching the wider network.
02Prediction
Outbreak size should track the ratio at equal R.
03Refutation
Outbreak size tracking R alone would remove clustering.