Theory 11/Emergency Medicine & Triage
Triage Fails Under Time Pressure
The claim
Triage accuracy is set by the ratio of decision time to patient acuity, so accuracy degrades nonlinearly as the time available falls rather than declining smoothly.
01The mechanism
Triage is a classification under uncertainty. With less time, fewer cues are sampled and the decision reverts to the most available feature, which is often the least discriminative.
That makes the ratio the determinant, and predicts a threshold below which misclassification rises steeply.
02What this is not
Training-based accuracy models
Those attribute accuracy to skill. This attributes it to time relative to acuity, which explains degradation in surges.
03Predictions
- P1Accuracy should fall sharply below a time ratio.
- P2Adding staff should improve accuracy nonlinearly.
04Refutation
Smooth accuracy decline with time would remove the threshold.