Theory 09/Pharmacovigilance
Reporting Follows Coverage
The claim
Adverse event reporting rates are set by the ratio of media coverage to baseline incidence, so a signal can appear for a drug with no change in true risk if coverage rises.
01The mechanism
Reporting requires the reporter to connect a symptom to a drug. Media coverage supplies that connection, so reporting rises with salience rather than with incidence.
The ratio determines the size of the reporting spike, which is why signals cluster after publicity.
02What this is not
Incidence-driven reporting
Those assume reports track events. This makes salience the driver, which explains publicity-linked spikes.
03Predictions
- P1Reports should track coverage relative to baseline.
- P2Spikes should follow publicity with a short lag.
04Refutation
Reports tracking incidence at controlled coverage would remove the bias.