Theory 083/Law & Forensic Science
Confidence Is Post-Hoc
The claim
Eyewitness confidence tracks the feedback given after identification rather than accuracy, so confidence measured later is a poor guide.
01The mechanism
Confidence is reconstructed from social cues at the time it is reported; a confirming procedure raises it without improving the memory.
02Predictions
- P1Confidence should shift with feedback at constant accuracy.
- P2Initial confidence should predict better than later.
03Refutation
Confidence tracking accuracy regardless of feedback would restore the simple view.