Theory 090/Law & Forensic Science
Expert Weight Is a Ratio
The claim
The influence of expert testimony is set by the ratio of stated confidence to the strength of the underlying evidence rather than by credentials.
01The mechanism
Decision makers use confidence as a proxy for evidence quality; when confidence outruns evidence, the proxy misleads more than credentials would.
02Predictions
- P1Influence should track the ratio.
- P2Credentials should predict poorly once confidence is included.
03Refutation
Influence tracking credentials would remove the confidence term.