# Volume X — installment 1, theories 91-120 (new file)
THEORIES = [
{"n":91,"slug":"livestock-group-treatment","field":"Veterinary Medicine","title":"Resistance Is a Group Ratio","claim":"Antimicrobial resistance in livestock is set by the ratio of group to individual treatment rather than by total consumption.","mechanism":"Group treatment exposes healthy animals to subtherapeutic doses, which selects for resistance without treating disease; individual treatment concentrates exposure where it is needed.","predictions":["Resistance should track the ratio.","Total consumption should mispredict."],"refute":"Resistance tracking total consumption would remove the ratio."},
{"n":92,"slug":"herd-immunity-age-mixing","field":"Veterinary Medicine","title":"Herd Immunity Is Age Mixing","claim":"Herd immunity thresholds in livestock are set by mixing between age groups rather than by R0 alone.","mechanism":"Separated age cohorts allow the pathogen to persist in one group while another is naive; mixing determines whether immunity is effectively global.","predictions":["Thresholds should shift with mixing structure.","Equal R0 with different mixing should need different coverage."],"refute":"Thresholds tracking R0 would remove the mixing term."},
{"n":93,"slug":"lameness-load-contact","field":"Veterinary Medicine","title":"Lameness Is a Load Ratio","claim":"Equine lameness is set by the ratio of load to hoof contact area rather than by body mass.","mechanism":"Stress at the hoof depends on load per unit area; trimming and surface change the area without changing mass.","predictions":["Lameness should track the ratio.","Mass alone should mispredict across hoof conformations."],"refute":"Lameness tracking mass would remove the area term."},
{"n":94,"slug":"mastitis-vacuum-ratio","field":"Veterinary Medicine","title":"Mastitis Is a Vacuum Ratio","claim":"Bovine mastitis incidence is set by the ratio of milking vacuum to teat-end pressure rather than by hygiene alone.","mechanism":"Excessive vacuum drives milk impact and opens the teat canal, admitting pathogens even in clean environments.","predictions":["Incidence should track the ratio.","Hygiene improvements alone should underperform."],"refute":"Incidence tracking hygiene would remove the mechanical term."},
{"n":95,"slug":"kennel-cough-ventilation","field":"Veterinary Medicine","title":"Kennel Cough Is Ventilation","claim":"Kennel cough spread is set by the ratio of ventilation to occupancy rather than by animal density alone.","mechanism":"Same density with more air changes reduces the rebreathed fraction; density sets the source, ventilation sets the exposure.","predictions":["Spread should track the ratio.","Density alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Spread tracking density would remove the ventilation term."},
{"n":96,"slug":"poultry-growth-skeletal","field":"Veterinary Medicine","title":"Leg Weakness Is a Maturity Ratio","claim":"Poultry leg weakness is set by the ratio of growth rate to skeletal maturity, not by growth rate.","mechanism":"Bone must carry a load set by mass while it is still mineralising; the ratio sets whether skeletal strength keeps pace.","predictions":["Weakness should track the ratio.","Fast growth with faster maturity should be safer."],"refute":"Weakness tracking growth rate would remove the maturity term."},
{"n":97,"slug":"parasite-refugia","field":"Veterinary Medicine","title":"Resistance Is Refugia","claim":"Anthelmintic resistance is set by the proportion of the parasite population in refugia rather than by treatment frequency.","mechanism":"Susceptible parasites outside treated hosts dilute resistant survivors; removing refugia lets resistance dominate even with modest treatment.","predictions":["Resistance should track refugia proportion.","Frequency alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Resistance tracking treatment frequency would remove the refugia term."},
{"n":98,"slug":"anesthesia-mass-surface","field":"Veterinary Medicine","title":"Anesthetic Risk Is a Surface Ratio","claim":"Small-animal anesthetic risk is set by the ratio of body mass to surface area rather than by mass, so small patients are dosed proportionally higher.","mechanism":"Heat loss and drug distribution scale with surface area, while dose scales with mass; the ratio determines how much margin is consumed.","predictions":["Risk should rise as the ratio falls.","Small patients should need adjusted dosing."],"refute":"Risk tracking mass would remove the surface term."},
{"n":99,"slug":"cold-chain-excursion","field":"Veterinary Medicine","title":"Cold Chain Is Excursion Time","claim":"Vaccine cold chain failure is set by the ratio of cumulative excursion time to the permitted limit rather than by the worst temperature reached.","mechanism":"Antigen degradation accumulates with time at temperature; a brief extreme and a long mild excursion can be equivalent.","predictions":["Failure should track the ratio.","Peak temperature alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Failure tracking peak temperature would remove the time term."},
{"n":100,"slug":"spillover-interface-density","field":"Veterinary Medicine","title":"Spillover Is an Interface","claim":"Wildlife disease spillover risk is set by the density of the human-wildlife interface rather than by wildlife reservoir prevalence.","mechanism":"Spillover requires contact; prevalence in a reservoir that never meets people produces no human cases regardless of how high it is.","predictions":["Risk should track interface density.","Reservoir prevalence alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Risk tracking prevalence would remove the interface term."},
{"n":101,"slug":"compaction-axle-contact","field":"Soil Science","title":"Compaction Is a Pressure Ratio","claim":"Soil compaction is set by the ratio of axle load to tyre contact pressure rather than by axle load.","mechanism":"Stress propagates to depth with magnitude set by contact pressure; a heavy load on a large tyre compacts less than a lighter one on a small tyre.","predictions":["Compaction should track the ratio.","Load alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Compaction tracking load would remove the pressure term."},
{"n":102,"slug":"infiltration-crust-matrix","field":"Soil Science","title":"Infiltration Is a Crust Ratio","claim":"Infiltration rate is set by the ratio of crust conductivity to matrix conductivity, so a thin crust can dominate a permeable soil.","mechanism":"Flow is limited by the least conductive layer; when the crust is orders of magnitude less conductive, the matrix is irrelevant.","predictions":["Infiltration should collapse with crusting.","Breaking the crust should restore infiltration abruptly."],"refute":"Infiltration tracking matrix conductivity would ignore the crust."},
{"n":103,"slug":"salinity-evaporation-leaching","field":"Soil Science","title":"Salinity Is an Evaporation Ratio","claim":"Soil salinisation is set by the ratio of evaporation to leaching rather than by irrigation water salinity.","mechanism":"Salts accumulate when evaporation removes water without drainage; the ratio determines whether accumulation or flushing dominates.","predictions":["Salinity should track the ratio.","Water quality alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Salinity tracking water quality would remove the ratio."},
{"n":104,"slug":"aggregate-fungal-bacterial","field":"Soil Science","title":"Aggregates Need Fungal Bias","claim":"Aggregate stability is set by the ratio of fungal to bacterial biomass rather than by total microbial biomass.","mechanism":"Fungal hyphae bind particles into stable aggregates; bacterial-dominated communities lack the binding structures.","predictions":["Stability should track the ratio.","Total biomass should mispredict."],"refute":"Stability tracking total biomass would remove the composition term."},
{"n":105,"slug":"respiration-labile-recalcitrant","field":"Soil Science","title":"Respiration Is a Carbon Ratio","claim":"Soil respiration is set by the ratio of labile to recalcitrant carbon rather than by total carbon.","mechanism":"Microbes respire accessible carbon first; total stock includes fractions that turnover over centuries and contribute little to flux.","predictions":["Respiration should track the ratio.","Total carbon should mispredict."],"refute":"Respiration tracking total carbon would remove the fraction term."},
{"n":106,"slug":"erosion-erosivity-cover","field":"Soil Science","title":"Erosion Is a Cover Ratio","claim":"Erosion is set by the ratio of rainfall erosivity to ground cover rather than by rainfall amount.","mechanism":"Cover intercepts raindrop energy and slows flow; the same rainfall erodes in proportion to how much soil is exposed.","predictions":["Erosion should track the ratio.","Rainfall alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Erosion tracking rainfall would remove the cover term."},
{"n":107,"slug":"n2o-anaerobic-volume","field":"Soil Science","title":"Nitrous Oxide Is an Anaerobic Share","claim":"Nitrous oxide flux is set by the ratio of anaerobic to total soil volume rather than by nitrogen application.","mechanism":"Denitrification requires anaerobic microsites; the share of the soil that is anaerobic sets how much applied nitrogen is converted.","predictions":["Flux should track the anaerobic share.","Nitrogen application alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Flux tracking application would remove the aeration term."},
{"n":108,"slug":"phosphorus-sorption-ratio","field":"Soil Science","title":"Phosphorus Is a Sorption Ratio","claim":"Plant-available phosphorus is set by the ratio of sorption to desorption capacity rather than by total soil phosphorus.","mechanism":"Phosphorus binds to iron and aluminium oxides; availability depends on how tightly it is held, not how much is present.","predictions":["Availability should track the ratio.","Total phosphorus should mispredict."],"refute":"Availability tracking total phosphorus would remove the sorption term."},
{"n":109,"slug":"soil-temperature-inertia","field":"Soil Science","title":"Soil Temperature Is Inertia","claim":"Soil temperature amplitude is set by the ratio of thermal inertia to albedo rather than by air temperature.","mechanism":"Inertia damps the surface swing while albedo sets the absorbed energy; the ratio determines how much of the atmospheric signal reaches depth.","predictions":["Amplitude should track the ratio.","Air temperature alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Amplitude tracking air temperature would remove the inertia term."},
{"n":110,"slug":"soil-biodiversity-pore-size","field":"Soil Science","title":"Soil Diversity Is Pore Size","claim":"Soil biodiversity is set by the pore-size distribution rather than by organic matter content.","mechanism":"Habitat space is partitioned by pore diameter; a soil with the right size classes supports more taxa than a richer soil with uniform pores.","predictions":["Diversity should track pore distribution.","Organic matter should mispredict."],"refute":"Diversity tracking organic matter would remove the pore term."},
{"n":111,"slug":"crown-fire-bulk-height","field":"Forestry & Fire Ecology","title":"Crown Fire Is a Bulk Ratio","claim":"Crown fire initiation is set by the ratio of canopy bulk density to canopy base height rather than by surface fuel load.","mechanism":"A fire reaches the crown when the energy released below exceeds the energy needed to heat the foliage; the ratio sets that balance.","predictions":["Initiation should track the ratio.","Surface fuel alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Initiation tracking surface fuel would remove the canopy term."},
{"n":112,"slug":"fire-spread-wind-slope","field":"Forestry & Fire Ecology","title":"Spread Is Wind Over Slope","claim":"Fire spread rate is set by the ratio of wind speed to slope steepness rather than by either alone.","mechanism":"Both tilt the flame toward unburned fuel; their effects combine through the same geometric mechanism, so only the ratio matters for a given fuel.","predictions":["Spread should collapse onto the ratio.","Wind alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Spread tracking wind alone would remove the slope term."},
{"n":113,"slug":"regeneration-seed-burn","field":"Forestry & Fire Ecology","title":"Regeneration Is Seed vs Severity","claim":"Post-fire regeneration is set by the ratio of seed bank to burn severity rather than by burn area.","mechanism":"Recovery requires surviving seed; severe burns consume the bank, and area only matters through how much of it is severely burned.","predictions":["Regeneration should track the ratio.","Burned area alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Regeneration tracking area would remove the severity term."},
{"n":114,"slug":"forest-carbon-growth-decomp","field":"Forestry & Fire Ecology","title":"Forest Carbon Is a Balance","claim":"Forest carbon storage is set by the ratio of growth to decomposition rather than by growth alone.","mechanism":"Storage is the difference between inputs and losses; a fast-growing forest with fast decomposition stores less than a slow one with slow decay.","predictions":["Storage should track the ratio.","Growth alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Storage tracking growth would remove the decomposition term."},
{"n":115,"slug":"beetle-drought-defense","field":"Forestry & Fire Ecology","title":"Beetles Need Drought Stress","claim":"Bark beetle outbreaks occur when the ratio of drought stress to tree defensive capacity exceeds a threshold, not when beetle populations are high.","mechanism":"Trees under drought cannot produce resin; beetles succeed where defences fail, so population size matters only after the threshold.","predictions":["Outbreaks should track the ratio.","Beetle counts alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Outbreaks tracking beetle counts would remove the defence term."},
{"n":116,"slug":"timber-site-rotation","field":"Forestry & Fire Ecology","title":"Timber Is a Rotation Ratio","claim":"Timber yield is set by the ratio of site index to rotation length rather than by site index.","mechanism":"Yield depends on growth accumulated over the rotation; a high site index harvested too early produces less than a moderate site grown longer.","predictions":["Yield should collapse onto the ratio.","Site index alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Yield tracking site index would remove the rotation term."},
{"n":117,"slug":"wui-space-ember","field":"Forestry & Fire Ecology","title":"WUI Risk Is Defensible Space","claim":"Wildland-urban interface loss is set by the ratio of defensible space to ember load rather than by proximity to vegetation.","mechanism":"Most home loss comes from ember accumulation, which defensible space reduces; proximity sets exposure but not vulnerability.","predictions":["Loss should track the ratio.","Proximity alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Loss tracking proximity would remove the space term."},
{"n":118,"slug":"prescribed-burn-consumed-target","field":"Forestry & Fire Ecology","title":"Prescribed Burns Are a Consumption Ratio","claim":"Prescribed burn effectiveness is set by the ratio of fuel consumed to the fuel reduction target rather than by burn area.","mechanism":"Hazard reduction depends on how much fuel was removed, not how many hectares were treated; a large incomplete burn can achieve little.","predictions":["Effectiveness should track the ratio.","Area alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Effectiveness tracking area would remove the consumption term."},
{"n":119,"slug":"drought-mortality-hydraulic","field":"Forestry & Fire Ecology","title":"Drought Death Is a Margin","claim":"Forest drought mortality is set by the ratio of hydraulic demand to safety margin rather than by precipitation deficit.","mechanism":"Trees die when embolism reaches a critical fraction of the xylem; species with narrow margins die at modest deficits.","predictions":["Mortality should track the ratio.","Deficit alone should mispredict across species."],"refute":"Mortality tracking deficit would remove the margin term."},
{"n":120,"slug":"reforestation-root-shoot","field":"Forestry & Fire Ecology","title":"Planting Survival Is Root Ratio","claim":"Reforestation survival is set by the root-to-shoot ratio at planting rather than by seedling size.","mechanism":"Transplanted seedlings must supply water from a reduced root system to an intact canopy; the ratio sets whether they can.","predictions":["Survival should track the ratio.","Seedling size alone should mispredict."],"refute":"Survival tracking size would remove the ratio."},
]