An invented two-opportunity ledger. There are 100 viable eggs before the first inundation. No reproduction is included. This is arithmetic, not a fitted killifish model.
| Scenario | Hatch at first rain | Keep in reserve |
|---|---|---|
| A: all commit | 100 | 0 |
| B: half commit | 50 | 50 |
First pool fails before any fish survive. Of reserved eggs, 90% remain viable until a second pool, and 60% of those produce surviving fish. Calculate the outcome in each scenario.
A leaves 0. B leaves 50×0.9×0.6=27 survivors. Now let the first pool succeed with 80% survival. A gives 80; B gives 40+27=67. Spreading commitment helps in one sequence and reduces the return in another. No general optimum follows without probabilities, reserve costs and later reproductive outcomes.
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